In an update of its flagship publication, Asian Development Outlook 2013 (ADO 2013), ADB revised down its 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to six per cent from 6.6 per cent seen in April, as growth moderates in the region’s two largest economies–China and India.
In China and India, according to the report, authorities are engineering a medium-term transition to a more sustainable growth path than one led by exports and investment.
However, the region is in a comparatively strong position to cope with the slowdown, with many economies running current account surpluses and holding large foreign reserve stockpiles. For 2014, growth is now projected at 6.2 per cent from 6.7 per cent in April. Meanwhile, resurgence in the US economy is expected to pick up in the coming months. Signs are also emerging that the euro area is turning the corner, and Japan’s economic growth is accelerating.
For Mongolia, growth is forecast to slow to 12 per cent in 2013 and 13 per cent in 2014, supported by the modest recovery in the global economy and the start of commercial mining at the vast Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. The short- to medium-term prospects for the Mongolian economy are subject to trends in China and the global economy, and expansionary fiscal policies historically make it vulnerable to external shocks.